Bitcoin is reaching a strong upside confluence of the resistance of 30500. A confirmed break above this resistance warrants a substantial upside extension, but we may expect a new swing down for now.
Only a confirmed break above 30500 will lead to an extension higher and a continuation above 31000 to test the 36000 key level for this year.
Any short-term confirmed break below 29000 would lead to a bearish swing lower to 24000 again, for which we give a little more weight than an upside break above 31000.
This could be a medium-term low-risk short trade, but we reserve the right to switch to a long trade in case of a break above 31000. Price action positioning and a near-strong resistance with a rising (usually bearish) wedge give a short trade a greater probability as the volume of trading is decreasing also.
You can take the short trade upon a break below 29000 with the stop loss just above 31000 as we see a higher probability of a swing reversal lower. By placing this trade your RR ratio is above 2. If you are stopped, you can reverse your trade to a long trade, especially in the case of a confirmed break above 31000.
