Oil was unable to break above the 74 level after the recent strong bounce from 64
Only a confirmed break above 74 will lead to an extension higher and a retest of 79 to break above the falling channel and extend higher.
This short-term confirmed break below 71 after the resistance rejection would lead to a bearish swing lower to 65 again, for which we give a little more weight than an upside break above 75.
This could be a medium-term low-risk short trade, and we will not search for long trade entries at this point.
You can take the short trade here with the stop loss just above 73 as we see a higher probability for this swing reversal lower to continue. By placing this trade your RR ratio is around 2. In the case, you are stopped you can reverse your trade to a long trade, especially in the case of a confirmed break above 74. The first target is 66 but it may go beyond that to 64 and lower.
